I do not like the several exploding device operations carried out by Israel recently. I agree that the campaign has been brilliantly executed, but I also believe that the tactical success is just one more stupid barrier to mitigation, let alone resolution, of the conflict between Shia Arab and Orthodox Jew. As I see the cost/benefit ratio, it is grossly unfavorable to Israel. Far more hate generated than real adverse, military effect. I understand that this puts me in opposition to the majority of Americans who are frustrated by the seeming impossibility of reducing the gross inhumanity of the Iranian sponsored attack on Israel. In their eyes, Hezbollah deserves just about anything that can be thought of to get even with the pain that they have inflicted on Israeli citizens. I think rightly, that their anger conflates Hezbollah and Hamas and sees the hand of Iran behind the all out attack on Israel. People who can burn babies in an oven deserve absolutely anything that can be thought of as punishment.
My criticism is that none of us are addressing the ultimate source of all present day Shia Arab attacks on Israel. We are literally killing the wrong enemy and have been doing so for quite awhile, even before we mistakenly eliminated Saddam Hussein from the equation. We understand that Teheran is behind all of the present day violence, including October 7, Hezbollah’s constant bombardment of Israel, the Houthi attack on international shipping in the Red Sea, and a plethora of other stupid acts throughout the region, but we are afraid to address that root cause effectively. Afraid. Repeat afraid. I suggest that the Radical Islamic leadership in Teheran and its sycophants throughout the region are encouraged by the way things are going throughout the Middle East, particularly the pause in rapprochement between Riyadh and Jerusalem. The Israeli’s exploding device gambit actually helps keep their supporters’ anger high enough to wholeheartedly continue the attack throughout the region. A tactical defeat that helps keep emotions highly charged.
I try to look beyond the tactical struggle to see the larger picture that is unfolding, not only in the Middle East, but elsewhere as well. I am immediately drawn to the Chinese and Russian challenge to our international leadership. Because Putin has his hands full with Ukraine right now, he correctly sees all of this as mitigating the support that we can give to the defense of that beleaguered country and he benefits marginally by receiving weapons from Teheran. His interest is primarily tactical. China, on the other hand, is primarily motivated by strategic objectives in the region to include the long term need for Iran’s energy. These issues dwarf any concern for Israel and ensure that Beijing and Moscow will continue to support Teheran over Jerusalem. The trajectory of this conflict in the Middle East will play a very large role in determining our effectiveness more broadly in international affairs.
All of this complicates our options in a conflict that could very easily result in a nuclear exchange, assuming, as I do, that Teheran already has a nuclear capability or could achieve one in a heartbeat. Were I in a position of influence, I would sit down with Iran and explain that they must stop their attack on Israel immediately or face war with the United States, If they choose war they should fully expect to be obliterated from the face of the earth - no matter what that might entail in the way of weaponry. Our attack would be as effective as possible and would include nuclear weapons if necessary. I would, in a timely manner, fully inform both Moscow and Beijing of my conversations with Iran. The fundamental point that I would be making is that I don’t want war, and I will not engage in it, except to win it. I would also come up with a face saving international committee structure designed to provide fig leaf political cover to all of our adversaries as well as a real effort to assist the people of the Middle East live a better life.
No comments:
Post a Comment