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Monday, March 11, 2024

Ukraine and the November Election

 The Polish Foreign Minister, in a speech at the United Nations, said that NATO military personnel were already present in Ukraine.  Comments out of Russia indicate that they knew it all along.  This follows on French President Macron's suggestion that NATO troops should be deployed to Ukraine.  President Biden has made it known that he continues to reject this possibility.

I have absolutely no way of knowing whether there are any NATO military personnel inside Ukraine today, but it is a discussion about very little of substance.  NATO is already providing manpower and brains in every aspect of the fighting except manpower on the front lines, and Moscow knows it.  Given today's communication capabilities it matters little where the intelligence or logistics officer sits.  The reason troops on the ground is rising to new levels of interest now, is because Ukraine is running out of soldiers, and Moscow's strategy is one of attrition. 

Back at the start of this stupidity, I argued that we should have told Moscow and Kiev to negotiate their way out of the looming conflict or we would force them to do so by cutting off aid to Ukraine and/or join in the defense of Ukraine with our own military, depending on which side was the recalcitrant.  I continue to believe that policy would have resulted in a negotiated solution to the stupidity, but I do not believe that it is today anything other than a prelude to World War III.  The problem being that Moscow has invested too much treasure and prestige in the effort and it believes that the Western World is tiring of the struggle and the cost of everything associated with it.

Today, Moscow sees an America divided at home and involved unsuccessfully in numerous foreign conflicts all over the globe - Gaza and Ukraine being the two most bothersome right now, but several others looming on the horizon, with Taiwan being in the forefront.  An important part of Moscow's decision-making process revolves around Joe Biden and Donald Trump.  Joe Biden gave Moscow Crimea and consciously refused to provide Kiev with the support necessary to change the situation for the better on the ground.  Donald Trump is a more difficult potential leader to analyze.  I am convinced that Putin is delighted with Biden and actually fears Trump, because he is unpredictable.

Because it has the potential to lead to nuclear war, I believe that Ukraine is one of the more important issues in our 2024 presidential election and I much prefer Trump to Biden as the decision-maker dealing with it, even though I do not like either of these two politicians personalities and I believe that Trump will make decisions vis-a-vis Ukraine that are contrary to our long term interests. If that is so, why do I support him over Biden?  Because I am convinced that Biden's decisions are far more likely to lead to nuclear war - either with Moscow or Beijing, or, more probably Teheran.  We have got to get past WWIII if we are to be able to go on and address the systemic problems that lead to these types of situations. 

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