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Saturday, March 23, 2024

The power of domestic American politics in ignorantly shaping our foreign policy.

AP, quoting the Financial Times, reports that "The United States has urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, warning that drone strikes risk provoking retaliation and driving up global oil prices."  Other press reports indicate that Washington is pressuring Jerusalem to not "go into Rafah" because too many innocent civilians will be harmed.  Cynics, myself included, argue that the Biden Administration takes both positions, not because of any humanitarian consideration, but rather because of domestic American politics.  Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure adversely impacts the price of oil in the international market and that drives the cost of gasoline up here inside this country, politically disadvantaging the administration in  power,  Israeli aggressive pursuit of Hamas fighters is causing a backlash inside this country that is adversely impacting Biden's poll numbers.  In neither situation, are Biden's protestations sufficient to shape the actions of our allies, let alone the actions of our adversaries.

I suggest that the ineffectiveness of our influence with our allies is, itself, an important signal to the rest of the world as to the deterioration of our effectiveness as a "world leader."  It has long been obvious that we can not stop Putin, or Xi, or the Ayatollah from pursuing policies that are contrary to our own interests and now it is increasingly clear that we can not even influence the governments that we prop up economically.  (It has long been obvious that we do not give a fig for anything that happens in the "undeveloped world.")  I argue that the fundamental point is that the American people have not thought either Ukraine or Gaza through sufficiently to form a government inside this country that has a firm position on either issue.  I am jaundiced enough to believe that both Biden and Trump shape their positions on issues based on how they believe they will be received by a majority of grossly ignorant American voters.

This is not the first time in history that this situation has arisen.  Every president has, to one degree or another, followed this same path throughout the life of this country and we have always managed to blunder through to a surprisingly good end result because we are basically good people.  We have periodically had to fight civil and international wars to do it, but, in the end, we prevailed and our democracy emerged "stronger than ever."  Never were we able to sustain the peace that we won in the most recent war, but no matter, "history was always on our side."  We choose to see our problems exactly the same way today, even though the situation has changed dramatically.  Never before have we faced the prospect of a war that would destroy us as well as our enemy - even if we later decide that we had won it.  This one is not only going to kill you and me, it is going to poison a significant amount of arable land that is going to change the way in which humans live on this increasingly small spinning chunk of rock.

I argue that, while it almost certainly will not be the war to end all wars, the next world war will be the war that permanently ends the good life in much of the world to include here in North America.  I suggest that it is high time for the citizenry of this democracy to eschew inadequate leadership and accept our own responsibilities.  Inherent in that transformation will be the need to understand that the quality of our life ultimately depends on the quality of everybody-else's lives.  Everybody in the entire world.  Very unfortunately, I do not see any indication that there is a chance in hell that is going to happen.  We are, every one of us, hell bent on proving that "it" is not our fault.  We fully accept that the world is going to hell in a hand basket, but take intellectual refugee in the firm knowledge that it is not our fault.  The problem is "the other."  That black guy.  That white guy.  That Jew.  That Arab.  That trans.  That straight.  That whatever.  That other whatever.  The only thing that we have in common is the firm knowledge that none of it is our fault.  Our mantra is "duck your head, stay out of substantive conversations, and get on with life."  If someone points out the inconvenient obvious, silence him or her any way that you can.  Life is too short to worry about someone else's problems.

Bah!

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