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Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Economic competition with China

 According to the Mexican newspaper El Pais, Chinese companies are selling significantly more cars in Mexico than they used to and are planning to expand their production of cars in that country with an eye to selling them in the United States.  Former President Trump has pledged, if reelected, to put a 100% tariff on those cars in an attempt to block their sale in this country.  I am not enthusiastic about the "thinking" behind the threatened tariff because, among other reasons, it will put Washington in the position of blocking Mexico's economic development, but I definitely agree with Trump that we have to take the Chinese economic competition very seriously and equally vehemently disagree with Biden's ignoring of the challenge.  

The underlying problem here, as in many other areas, is that we are unable to compete economically with China for market share.  We still have an important, if shrinking, edge in technology, but labor cost, government regulation, and a slew of other factors, including excessive government spending that results in inflation, increase the cost of production in this country, not only of automobiles but virtually everything else that one can imagine.  Not only that, our technological edge is being eroded as China becomes more proficient and efficient in their outreach to world markets.  Those that refuse to accept Chinese technological progress as a fact of life should understand that China is on the moon and they made it on their first attempt, the only country to ever do that.

I accept protectionism as a tactic, but not as a strategy.  Protectionism can obviously be useful in tactical negotiation, but, as a strategy, it puts us at odds with the rest of the world.  Whether we like it or not, we have to compete economically on a level playing field, if we do not want to see our trading partners become our military adversaries.  Both WOKE and MAGA political philosophies fail to encompass this economic reality - the one being overly accommodating and the other overly adversarial.  I find the dichotomy between the American free enterprise myth and the reality of our day-to-day economic thinking to be fascinating.  We claim to believe in free enterprise, but we neuter it domestically at every opportunity and oppose it internationally just exactly as often.

I suggest that a fundamental part of the problem is that we do not fully understand the Chinese threat because we have never seen it executed as efficiently and consistently as the Chinese Communist Party is managing to accomplish today.  China poses many tactical problems, but the more formidable threat derives from the thought, discipline and tenacity that has gone into their strategy - literally over decades.  I first took an interest in China, while serving in the army in Korea, a very long time ago, and I have watched their strategy be rigorously implemented over my entire lifetime.  I am not saying that they have a better strategy than do we, but I am saying that they are implementing theirs better than are we, ours.  The contest is authoritarianism vis-a-vis democracy and our side is presently behind, way behind, and the real problem is that you and I are sound asleep.  

While we flip flop through various conflicts all over the globe, Beijing rigorously avoids wasteful conflict and concentrates on economic growth.  Take Hong Kong for instance.  Our concern has been the freedom of the people.  China's objective was the diminution of Hong Kong as an Asian economic center while simultaneously building Shanghai as the new economic center to replace it.  They did not want to wait for the treaty with Britain to expire, so they pushed reversion, fully understanding that neither London nor Washington would resist militarily.  Their success has, among other things, significantly weakened, if not eliminated, Western economic influence in many third world markets.  BRICS is expanding while western economic fora are shrinking in importance.  Today, China is threatening to sell automobiles to us via Mexico, and Detroit and Washington are in shock.  In the Middle East, China is today positioning itself to negotiate a peace between various groups that increasingly refuse to talk to us.

I am not saying that China is better than us.  I am saying that they are more intelligent and more disciplined than us.  They are pushing forward while we argue with each other about the age of the fetus, the number of chips in the bag, the price of gasoline, the proper use of pronouns, and our precious feelings.  We don't even understand that we are already at war with China and they are advancing while we retreat.  The fact that they are maneuvering economically and socially, literally all over the globe, confuses and frustrates us.  We contemplate military action while they eschew it as being wasteful and ineffective.  You and I choose, repeat choose to not understand what is happening.  I find that inexcusable.  Take fentanyl as an example.  Raw materials sold to Mexican drug dealers generate money in Chinese pockets, strengthens cartel influence in Mexico, and societal disintegration in America.

Tell me again why you and I are not stupid beyond belief.

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