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Saturday, January 5, 2019

I continue to support the President of the United States, but I am increasingly concerned with the direction that our foreign policy appears to be headed.  I understand the desire to rid ourselves of war.  It is nasty, expensive and destructive.  There is nothing, repeat nothing, that is favorable associated with it.  It is understandable that a president would be frustrated with a situation such as we find in Afghanistan or Syria or Libya or any number of other places around the world where bad actors are engaged in pursuing evil policies while the rest of the world pretty much sits back and lets us deal with the vile fallout.  Although he has not yet carried through with his stated desire to pull out and let others take responsibility for these various trouble spots, I presume that President Trump, as he has repeatedly promised, will, in the not too distant future, withdraw all US military out of Syria and most out of Afghanistan.  

My belief is that no friendly power can or will step forward to fill the vacuum created by our withdrawal.  We will be replaced by hostile powers pursuing highly dangerous policies that will eventually require an even greater effort on our part to right the situation - if it can be righted short of a nuclear exchange.  It appears to me that, in Syria, the President is looking to President Erdogan of Turkey to fill-in behind us as we withdraw.  The negotiations surrounding the extradition of Fethullah Gülen appear to be reenergized and there are rumors that we are considering providing logistic support for Turkish forces to establish their buffer zone against the Kurdish YPG inside Syria in return for which they are to take the lead in mopping up ISIS remnants.  I presume that there is some sort of commitment by Damascus and Ankara that they will negotiate in good faith with the Kurds, but I doubt the sincerity of those commitments.  I suspect that President Trump is using the Khashoggi affair to force Riyadh’s nominal acquiescence.  I doubt that he has to say or do much vis-a-vis Moscow in as much as President Putin will be delighted to see us leave the region.  I see no such plan involving a surrogate being considered for the Afghanistan pull out.  There, I believe that the President appears to be content to let the Taliban take control of the country feeling that the Kabul leadership is incapable of running the country let alone winning the war.  I believe that he sees Afghanistan as being inconsequential to American interests.  I also presume that he has various assurances vis-a-vis Israel's future that reassure him.  I doubt that Israel is equally reassured.

I also understand President Trump’s frustration with our European allies in NATO.  They are, indeed, a frustrating bunch, but I believe that we are better off strengthening the alliance rather than tearing it down.  I support the hard nosed demand for more financial support for the defense of Europe, but deplore the unnecessary and counter-productive negative chatter that surrounds those demands.  I faulted President Regan for not talking to the European left and I fault President Trump for needlessly insulting them.  The United States is indeed still the greatest power in the entire world - by a long shot - but it is not capable of standing alone.  China and Russia are both dangerous potential antagonists and while we can not expect much effective help from others if we have to go to war with them, we sure as heck can use a lot of help prior to the out break of hostilities.  With enough help and finesse we might even be able to avoid having to fight with either of them.  


China and Russia are significant emerging threats, but even more important in the long run, however, is the future of Islam.  That religion is in serious need of an effective and thorough reformation before any of its’ adherents get their hands on nuclear weapons.  What we appear to be doing in the Middle East is taking us away from the reformation of Islam.  In my opinion, Erdogan, a crypto Muslim Brotherhood advocate, is the wrong horse to bet on and the hobbling of the Saudi Crown Prince is equally unfortunate.  Both Xi and Putin see Islam as a problem internally in China and Russia, but neither can be expected to follow policies that will support the reformation of Islam.  Rather they will continue to try, unsuccessfully, to destroy it as a political force inside their own countries.  Those policies will encourage greater radicalization of a religion that is followed by one seventh of the world population.  Many of the most influential Islamist leaders in the world today are apocalyptic in their thinking.  Nuclear obliteration of the Western life style might very easily fit into that thinking even if it results in mutual destruction.  The Dulles policy of mutual destruction that we have successfully used against Moscow obviously will not work in that situation.

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