Like. everybody else, I am trying to figure out what Trump is up to in Ukraine. Like everybody else, I am confused by his seemingly unprovoked attack on Zelensky. Joseph Bosch has an article in The Hill today that argues that “Trump finally shows his cards — he’s siding with Russia “ Others argue that he is trying to set the stage for Zelensky to accept a compromise with Moscow that otherwise would be unacceptable. The one consistent in the mix is our president’s focus on Ukraine’s rare minerals. Interestingly, that has generated the only substantive public comment that I have seen out of Moscow - “Trump keep your hands off of Ukraine’s rare minerals.”
My guess is that there are two Americans engaged in negotiating the end of the war in Ukraine - Kellogg and Trump. Nobody else is playing any substantive role and both of them are deeply involved in the actual negotiation. The Lavrov/Rubio meeting in Riyadh was more relevant to Gaza than Ukraine and all of the commentary in the press is pure speculation by people who are totally out of touch with the reality of the negotiation. Trump is carrying the heavier load in as much as he is attempting to craft the essence of the agreement in his telephone calls with Putin. General Kellogg is charged with selling “the deal” to Zelensky. Everybody else is commenting on it for reasons of their own and can be divided into Trump-haters and Trump-lovers. Few in the general public are making any effort to see what is actually happening and that disgusts me even more than the issues involved in the war itself, because it reflects badly on us here in America.
My assumption is that Russia will keep most, if not all, of the territory that it now holds, Ukraine will withdraw from its incursion into Russia proper, and some sort of shared international cost will be announced for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure. Our part of that later expenditure will be to some extent moderated by the rare mineral deal that is currently a major detail in the three-way negotiation. An extremely important part of the deal will be Europe’s role in it. Recent blather in Europe and here in this country would seem to indicate that it is a highly contentious subject that spills over into America’s role in Europe more widely. It is not impossible that our future troop levels in Europe will be part of the conversation between Trump and Putin as will Ukraine’s future position vis-a-vis Russian and American interests in European political alignment. My current guess is that Ukraine will not soon be permitted to associate itself with Western Europe - either in NATO or in the European Union, but it is not impossible that some sort of vague language to this effect might be crafted.
My assumption is that Putin will be delighted if we decide to reduce our troop deployment in Europe because Europe is not investing enough in their own defense. Consideration of that issue opens the door to an even wider set of considerations about the future role of America in Europe. This is going to scare the average American and European out of their mind, and there are a plethora of obvious dangers involved, but there is also the opportunity to change the fundamental relationship between Russia (not Putin), Europe, and the United States. I would love to be a part of that negotiation because I believe that it is the only way that we can begin to address the real problems that face humanity.
PS: Compare the content of our current “conversation” out here in the hustings with what I am talking about here, and ask yourself whether we can handle the responsibilities inherent in a democracy.
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