American manufactured long range missiles in Ukraine's war with Russia.

 I have absolutely no information as to why President Biden just authorized Ukraine to use American manufactured long range missiles in its war with Russia, but Ukraine President Zelensky has taken the public position that it will force Moscow to negotiate an end to the fighting.  Biden is making the argument that it is a counter to Moscow’s hiring North Korean mercenaries.  Putin is arguing that it risks precipitating the use of nuclear weapons in the fighting.  All of this in the context of former President Trump’s reelection.  My assumption is that neither Putin nor Zelenskyy see Biden as any longer being relevant to their conflict.  Both men are looking past Biden to Trump with hope and trepidation.  It would not surprise me if Putin suspected that Biden’s decision was aimed at helping Trump, but I am jaundiced enough to discount that possibility.  I can see an equally tempting argument that Biden wanted to go out of office as the tough guy that stood up to Moscow, while Trump is the one advocating for giving Putin what he wants at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty.

As I have argued ever since before Moscow invaded Ukraine this time around, this conflict is massively harmful to the world order and to this country, and Biden should never have permitted it to happen.  The time to stop it was before it happened in our relations with both Moscow and Kiev.  Putin remembered that Biden had been part of the Administration that permitted him to take Crimea and assumed that Biden would acquiesce to his taking Kiev, but his military failed him when their blitzkrieg literally ran out of gas on the way to Kiev.  Had that not happened, I believe that Biden would have indeed permitted Putin to have all of Ukraine.  Our policy during the subsequent fighting has been equally stupid in that it prolonged the killing, spread the destruction across too much of the country, and adversely impacted far too much of the world economy.  Both Kiev and we have grown tired of the war and are now faced with stopping the killing and cleaning up the mess without either side being able to claim victory.  It is a situation where neither side is going to be content with the decisions made at the negotiating table.  Unlike Biden, Trump can be counted on to sincerely try to end the conflict and, although I believe that he has an excellent chance of success, it is equally certain that nobody is going to be satisfied with the results of the negotiations.

I want to add that these kinds of situations are bad enough, and there are presently far too many of them throughout the world, but we must understand that if any one of them goes wrong, we will be faced with nuclear war and it really does not matter very much who “wins” a war that involves the massive use of nuclear weapons.  You and I have grown numb to the violence that is plaguing far too much of the world and far too many of us assume that we can continue to ignore it unless it bothers us in our own city streets.  That ignorance results in our freely electing inadequate leadership that is attentive to our inane domestic squabbles concerning the proper use of pronouns, the sign on the bathroom door, and the price of whatever, but are grossly inadequate with regard to the issues that stem from too many human beings competing for a fixed supply of resources on an increasingly crowded sphere of fixed dimensions.

President Trump likes tariffs.

President Trump likes tariffs.  I am less enthusiastic than is he, but I see their usefulness as long as they remain a tactic and not a strategy.  China produces a number of goods for much less than it costs to make them in this country.  An argument can be made that placing tariffs on their import hurts the American consumer because it raises the price of the goods that were being imported and are now made locally.  The counter argument is that buying goods from China weakens the American economy and hurts American companies and workers.  This, in turn, spins the domestic economy down, weakening the country further.  Both arguments are valid.  Proponents of tariffs also point out that permitting China to produce things that we need gives them leverage over us should our diplomatic relations sour.  Pharmaceuticals being an excellent case in point.

My own view of the issue goes far beyond the dangers inherent in a trade war.  Fundamental to my world view is the need for all people, everywhere in the world, to have a decent standard of living.  Trade wars are the last thing that we need, if we are to promote a decent standard of living for all people in an effort to avoid conflict.  The theoretical solution touted by economists is for America to innovate and streamline its’ own production so as to compete more effectively.  Maintaining a decent standard of living while competing with an economy that pays its workers far less money is difficult, very difficult, particularly when you also have different environmental standards.  That leads inevitably to consideration of tariffs.  The idea being to raise the price of the imported good sufficiently to permit domestic production to compete.  

Trump, during his first term, did, indeed manage to bring much of our economy back home, in part through the use of tariffs, and he is indicating that he intends to do it again.  While I support this tactic, I fear that it will inevitably morph into a strategy, unless we manage to do the hard work necessary to make our economy more competitive.  Once again, I see the problem not being political as much as it is societal.  I believe that you and I have gotten fat and lazy and used to being the world leader.  We no longer have the drive that made us the country that we once were.  If I am right, and if you and I do not change, I continue to believe that we will eventually end up exchanging nuclear tipped missiles with one or another foreign antagonist.  Where we purchase our aspirin will be far down the list of problems that we have.

In this last election, Trump received a considerable amount of electoral support from labor.  I agree with the political pundits that argue that this indicates that he has the support of working class America.  While that has resulted in a political victory for “conservatives,” the practical definition of “conservative” has changed dramatically.  The modern American conservative favors the protectionism that is the reflection of the economic problem that we face.  Trump understands this fact of life, while Biden/Harris and their liberal colleagues do not.  The domestic political and economic impact is serious enough, but the impact that it will have on our foreign relations is of even greater import, because it inevitably encourages us to continue a foreign policy that does not adequately address the needs of the rest of the world.  I see this as being extremely dangerous, because several of our major foreign antagonists possess nuclear weapons and the delivery mechanisms necessary to not only destroy our infrastructure, but also to poison the land on which we depend for our sustenance.

Trump and Negotiations in Ukraine.

 BBC has an article out today that claims that Ukrainian President Zelensky believes that the war will end “sooner” following Trump’s ascendency to the US presidency.  I believe that is a very real possibility and it is one of the major reasons why I voted for Trump.  It is definitely not a done deal, and the exact nature of the peace settlement has yet to be crafted, but I think that everybody engaged in this stupidity is tired of it, and is looking for some sort of solution.  My guess is that there will be a territorial shift favorable to Moscow, but supportive of Ukrainian sovereignty over the remaining part of present day Ukraine.  Trump will be castigated by his domestic enemies, but respected by his foreign adversaries for his role.  The aspect of the negotiations that interests me most is the effect that they will, or will not, have on the position of Russia in the family of nations going forward.  It is going to be extremely difficult to see through the clouds of ignorance that will color the dialog that emerges, but, while the end of the fighting in Ukraine is important, the future role of Moscow on the international stage is far more important.

We Americans out here in the hustings see the world very simplistically.  We have friends and enemies and we advocate strengthening our friends and weakening our enemies.  That approach to world affairs has been acceptable since humans managed to stand upright on two legs, but it is no longer an intelligent way forward because it inevitably leads to increasingly violent conflict, as humans continue to make technological “advances” in the technology of war.  What we have to get though our thick heads here in this country is that the sign on the bathroom door is not anywhere near as important as an acceptable life for every single person trying to live on this increasingly finite chunk of rock spinning aimlessly in space.  The challenge is made more difficult because too many of us see the parameters of our world fundamentally differently.  Those differences are the danger, unless we find ways to live with them harmoniously.  Trump is far better than Biden, but neither understand the challenge that I am here discussing, and, more importantly, the American people do not.  If I am right, and you and I do not understand what is at stake, how are we going to elect leadership that will guide us intelligently?

President elect Trump's New Cabinet.

 It is way too early to judge the quality of President elect Trump's new cabinet, but it is beginning to look as though he is doing his best to not have to argue with any of his cabinet about policy, or the way in which he functions.  There do not appear to be any independent voices in the group that is emerging.  All of the people he has selected to date are qualified and appear to agree with him about policy, but my suspicion is that a common denominator among them is agreement that Trump alone will do the thinking and enunciate all important policy decisions.  Their task is to implement those decisions, not contribute significantly in developing them.  I expect Trump's involvement in each area of governance to vary depending on his appreciation of its importance at the time a given question comes up.  I should hasten to add that I do not see any of this as being unusual as a new president approaches the presidency.

Trump's first term, combined with his banishment from Washington, has "educated" our next president and lessons learned will color his decisions going forward.  I expect him to try to purge WOKE thinking from all positions of influence within the entire federal government and reverse any and all policies that support it.  I expect this aspect of his presidency to fuel the "Resistance" that his Democrat antagonists are attempting to mount nationwide, but most of the yelling will be about global warming, democracy, and his gross insensitivity.  Specifics will be hard to find in any argument, at any level of society.  

I expect Trump's presidency to improve our economy, make significant gains in securing our cities, and reduce the amount of open warfare that is going on throughout the world.  How much success he has in each area depends on factors that I do not now understand.  I do not expect him to heal the ridiculous rifts that are destroying our unity.  At best, he will merely suppress one side of the inane internal argument.  Should his term be judged successful by the general public, his policies will be continued into a successor administration.  Should they be judged unsuccessful he will be replaced by those that he banished, and we will flip flop once again.  Trump will be blamed and cheered, but the real action is out here in the town square.  Unless you and I start thinking, we are going to be stuck with this ridiculous situation until one or another of us decides to blow the world up.

A Tidal Wave of Words

We are exposed to a tidal wave of words every day of our lives. Sometimes we let the jabber infect our minds and we forget, ignore, dismiss, and prevaricate, when we should hold fast to principal. The enemy is within. It is an amalgam of fear, greed, hubris and wishful thinking and it is a powerful force. We see it clearly in others and fail to see it in ourselves. There are going on eight billion of us living on this increasingly crowded rock spinning aimlessly in an infinity of emptiness, and the only ones that have figured it all out is "us." "They" are the problem.

North Korean troops in Ukraine,

The Hill has an interesting article highlighting the incongruity of Putin using godless North Korean troops in Ukraine, allegedly to preserve Russian cultural and religious values.  Most Americans scoff at the cultural rationalization for Putin’s actions, but I do not.  I am not naive enough to believe that it is the reason for his invasion of Ukraine, but I do believe that it is an important part of his explanation of that action within Russia.  In my view, Putin is attempting to stop the further deterioration of the Soviet model of domestic Russian governance and Russian foreign relations, and he is using Russian culture as a corner stone of his domestic political discussion within Russia.

Were I influential enough, I would be arguing that we should cold-bloodedly accept the cultural argument as being the root of the present war, and force Kiev and Moscow to negotiate an end to the fighting.  My objective would be to permit people living in Ukraine to choose between Kiev and Moscow.  My current understanding is that the Donbas Region of Ukraine is populated by a significant number of people who look toward Moscow more than toward Kiev for their cultural identity.  In return for that concession to Putin, I would hold out for Russian financial participation in the rebuilding of all of Ukraine, recognizing that Moscow, not only does not intend to do that, but even if they did, they would not have the resources to do very much more than repair the part of Ukraine that they gain control of in the peace negotiations.

This war was a serious mistake right from the very beginning and it is not going to magically be made anything else in the negotiations that end it.  I believe that Trump basically understands the unfortunate situation well enough to attempt some sort of resolution along these lines, but I do not see any evidence that he will go beyond ending the war to any of the things that need to be done to avoid future manifestations of the exact same stupidity on the part of Russian and American leaders.  We humans must find a way to live together peacefully, not because it is the right thing to do, but because we will destroy ourselves unless we do.   Were I influential enough, I would be arguing for a negotiation that brought Moscow into the family of nations.  Following that, I would invite Beijing, Pyongyang, and Teheran to join in as well - in that order.  I well understand that the problem grows ever more complex as we move through this hierarchy of intransigence, but we must do it successfully to avoid a massive nuclear exchange down the line somewhere.  Russian and Chinese communism is going to be difficult enough, but the apocalyptic leadership within Radical Islam may well be impossible.  North Korea should become manageable once we move away from the Kim Family's control of that benighted country.

Trump’s election is worrisome to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and encouraging to Russian President Putin.

Trump’s election is worrisome to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and encouraging to Russian President Putin.  Their war is draining both countries of resources, destroying infrastructure, killing and wounding far too many of their citizens, and the harm extends well beyond their two countries.  Both men are making statements designed to influence Trump in anticipation of his involvement in their dispute and American media are interpreting the various statements based on their opinion of Trump.  Liberal media is worried that Trump will force Kiev to give up territory and ultra conservative media suggests that it is time to end the financial drain the war is making on American resources, irregardless of Kiev’s political desires.

I have long argued that we should never have permitted the war to start in the first place, but that is, today, irrelevant.  Biden permitted the situation to get out of hand long ago and Trump looks like he is going to try to clean it up.  I believe that the options are stark.  We have two choices.  Permit the war to continue without end and face the probability that it will eventually expand into a conflict that involves us in a nuclear exchange with Russia, or negotiate a settlement that involves conceding some territory to Russia in return for some sort of guarantee that Moscow will leave Ukraine alone in the future.  I understand that Zelensky does not like either option.  If I were a Ukrainian citizen I would agree with him.  I am not a Ukrainian citizen.  I favor a negotiated settlement that transfers some portion of Donbas to Russian political control in return for Moscow guaranteeing that it will leave the rest of Ukraine alone.  Hopefully, Trump can also get some sort of commitment from Russia to help in the rebuilding of Ukraine, but I am not optimistic regarding the prospect of this ever happening.

American public opinion is not going to like this solution, and it will further widen the gulf between liberal and conservative inside this country and internationally.  Trump is going to be blamed by liberals in Europe as well as here in this country for pandering to Putin, but that is an oversimplification of the issues involved here.  Foreign and domestic liberals demand that our foreign antagonists play by the rules, but adamantly refuse to engage in actual hostilities to ensure that they do.  Our negotiating position is seen to be hollow pontification and unworthy of consideration by the likes of Putin, Xi, and the mullahs in Teheran.  Our foreign antagonists see us spending our money on sex change therapy instead of military strength.  If we want the world to behave the way we think that it should, we are going to have to be willing to fight for it.  PS:  the same is true here at home.  If we want our streets to be safe, we are going to have to be willing to police them.