Trump and Syria.

 I am too far away from Syria to know what is happening, let alone be in a position to predict what the future holds.  Having said that, here is what I think might happen as the new Trump Administration addresses the situation.  I see absolutely no evidence that Trump wants to continue to be in between a huge mix of factions that hate each other.  He is pragmatic enough to recognize Ankara’s position and will want to make a deal with Erdogan, the parameters of which will include a Turkish commitment to keep ISIS in check, as America continues its withdrawal from Syria and lets Erdogan call the shots on the ground.  Assuming that things do work out this way, Kurdish interests will continue to suffer and Damascus will continue to emerge as an ally of Ankara.  Because this development would tend to minimize Teheran’s influence, it would be welcomed by our Saudi allies.  I can not know how Erdogan’s relationship with ISIS will develop, but I do not believe that it will result in a resurgence of a radical caliphate in the region.  Erdogan is more than willing to talk to and work with Islamist leaders that most Americans would consider to be too radical, and his success in helping shape the rebellion in Syria would tend to indicate that he is accomplished in these types of dealings.  This policy will, of course, be criticized by many, given the Kurd’s important assistance in defeating the ISIS caliphate, but I don’t believe that will deter Trump.  An important question mark surrounds the future of the prison camps housing ISIS radicals that are currently guarded by Kurds.  Should the Kurds abandon their role in guarding those prisons, that action will be used by Trump to support his policy.  My guess is that Erdogan would like to be in a position to negotiate the future of those camps, but I am certain that the Kurds would oppose that happening without significant assurances that Erdogan would be unwilling to make, or honor, if he did make them.