The departure of James Mattis from the Trump Administration is not a good thing, but neither is it the end of the world.  The mindless rubbish being hurled around about this development by all who detest President Trump and all of those who worship The Donald is embarrassing in its’ absurd partisan blindness.  I feel that I understand the Secretary of Defense’s motivation here and confess that I share the emotions and feelings that I believe guided his decision.  The man spent much of himself in the battle against our enemies in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and inevitably developed close relationships with many of the men and women that have been allied with us in those wars.  The policy that appears to be unfolding in Washington does not bode well for their future and he understandably feels that he is unable to implement it.  Being a principled American patriot, he chooses to step aside to permit the President to select someone else to implement his policy.  I am pretty sure that it is the most difficult thing that James Mattis has ever had to do and the most distasteful for a very long list of reasons.

Having said that, I am extremely concerned about what I think, repeat think, is guiding our President in his policy toward the Middle East.  Right now, subject to revision as more information becomes available, it looks to me that he may have made a deal on the telephone with President Erdogan of Turkey and President Putin of Russia regarding Syria.   I presume that President Assad of Syria is on board as well, but I very much doubt that he likes it one little bit.  If my suspicions are correct, Turkey will be permitted to establish a Kurdish free buffer zone inside Syrian territory along its’ eastern border in an effort to protect against future Syrian Kurdish support of the ethnic Kurdish discontent in Eastern Turkey.  In order for Turkey to accomplish this, we appear to be willing to support them logistically.  I presume that we have assurances from all concerned that they will not attempt to further degrade the Kurdish position in Syria.  My guess is that we will also attempt to turn over the mopping up operations against ISIS remnants to the Turks as well.  Assuming that occurs, and I repeat that it is all speculation at this point in time, we will abandon the Kurdish allies that were our ground force in the fight against ISIS and, overnight, start supporting one of their most ferocious, ancient, arch enemies - the Turk.  Politics is dirty business and diplomacy is worse.

Stepping back from the emotions, or at least attempting to do so, I see possible short term advantage to the policy shift in that we can reduce the exposure of American military personnel to the hostilities in the region.  We can also save a great deal of money.  We can reduce friction with Russia and improve relations with our superficial NATO partner - Turkey.  From President Trump’s point of view, domestically it might also look like he can garner support from those that have long held that we should not be as involved as we are currently in the Middle East.  Rand Paul is elated by the thought.  I am much more pessimistic - both domestically and internationally.  I doubt that any Democrat will give Trump anything but grief no matter what he does and I see the probable result of this policy as being the increase of radical influence throughout the region.  Hiding behind Erdogan in our fight against radicals is, in my mind, a risky, bet.  Erdogan is a crypto proponent of Muslim Brotherhood philosophy and that is a very slippery intellectual slope.  During his effort to unseat Assad in the Syrian civil war, Erdogan cooperated with virtually anyone who was opposed to Assad, including al Qaida and he continues to protect many Syrian radicals from the wrath of Moscow and Damascus, including al Qaida affiliates.

The reduction of forces in Afghanistan is a separate issue, but related in that it indicates that President Trump is uninterested in defeating the Taliban.  He appears to be saying to Kabul what Nixon said to Saigon.  America has been helping you long enough.  Now it is up to you to determine your own future.  I am not an expert in Afghani affairs, but my guess is that Kabul will be run by the Taliban in the relatively near future.  Washington, under Trump, is indicting that it is tired of supporting ineffective governments.  None of this, if, repeat if, it turns out to be true, is going to be encouraging in Jerusalem.  Israel is mesmerized by the increasingly powerful base of operations that Teheran already has in Syria and has seen the 2,000 some American troops inside Syria as being something of a bulwark against Iranian use of Syria as a launching pad for the final destruction of Israel that Teheran continues to promise at every opportunity.   My guess is that President Trump is confident enough in his ability to make a deal, that he is taking a number of world leaders verbal commitments to him as being sufficient to work through the possible pitfalls and he will be reassuring the Israelis that we will continue to ensure that no one actually attacks them fearing massive American retaliation.   Jerusalem will, among other obvious things, be worried about what happens after Trump.